To donate to this project, please use the link below, thank you, Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (30 March)
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
European unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions
Data from countries with more advanced epidemics
Slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy from interventions implemented several weeks earlier.
Italy, R0 close to 1 around the time of lockdown (11th March)
Interventions in 11 countries have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March
Many more deaths will be averted
Between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected up to 28th March, (1.88% and 11.43% of the population)
Attack rate, highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway
Lag of 2-3 weeks between transmission changes and deaths
Current interventions should remain in place to provide reassurance that transmission is slowing.
John
Italy, 60 m population
1.88% of 60m = 1, 128,000
Deaths up to today = 13, 115 = 1.16%
At 11.43% of population = 6,858,000
With 13,115 deaths = 0.2%
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